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An average American that has some thoughts on politics, culture, and society with a conservative and Catholic twist.

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Thursday, November 02, 2006

In Arizona, GOP finds the issue of immigration no help at polls

I have kept off the whole immigration/minutemen/Tancredo issue for a while(not counting yesterday). I have done this to foster some party unity here. But this article needs to be socked away.

Now its a good article and it shows that the Dems are trying to court what is called the "anti illegal" vote. But this is telling: Getting tough on illegal immigration is a winner in Arizona. Yet the issue is not playing out as House Republican leaders planned six months ago, when they bet their majority that a hard-line, no-compromise stance would rescue them in a brutal election climate dominated by the Iraq war and corruption.
With Tuesday's election days away, in districts where illegal immigration is Topic A, Republican hardliners are the candidates in trouble here. As many as three GOP House seats are in jeopardy, including that of six-term incumbent J.D. Hayworth, whose race has slid from shoo-in to toss-up.
The fire-breathing Hayworth, a staple of conservative talk shows and author of the border-security tract "Whatever It Takes" (Chapter One: "Overrun"), is in the battle of his career for the Phoenix suburbs against mild-mannered Democrat Harry Mitchell, an avuncular former mayor of Tempe who supports a guest worker program and a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already in the country.
In Tucson (Pima County), the open-seat district that spans the nation's busiest corridor for immigrants and drug trafficking, card-carrying Minuteman Randy Graf is expected to lose to pro-guest-worker Democrat Gabrielle Giffords
......think people realize that it's just not as simple as just rounding people up, sending them back, and sealing off the border," Mitchell said over lunch in Tempe, where he is so beloved that the city erected a 35-foot statue of him. "I think there's some sentiment for the fence," but "at the same time you need to be working on a guest worker program with employer sanctions."
Mitchell said a fence ignores underlying economic forces. "The illegal immigrants are not coming over here because the border is porous," he said. "They're coming over because there are jobs."
Democrats contend that House GOP leaders blundered last spring when they decided to refuse to negotiate with the Senate on its immigration bill -- sponsored by wildly popular Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain and backed by Bush -- that offered a legalization program for the estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants now in the country and a guest worker program for new arrivals.
Instead, House leaders denounced the Senate bill as amnesty and held dozens of hearings across the country highlighting the virtues of a border crackdown.
The result, however, was that only the fence bill passed. Much as Arizonans like fences, virtual or physical, many do not believe barriers alone will stop the tide of people.
Even Minutemen gathered to hear Graf debate Giffords in Sierra Vista, a conservative town near Arizona's southeastern border, said fences have limits, pointing to the rugged mountains towering over the town.
"You can't put a fence in there, that's for sure," said Gordon Cruger, a new resident of Sierra Vista.

I am not trying to rub this in but I have been screaming this forever. Go to the Pink Flamingo(whom you should visit every day) on my links. She is there and no doubt she is seeing the same thing. But please fellow Republicans listen to these words:Matt Salmon, chairman of the Arizona GOP and a former member of Congress, conceded that the House plan was flawed. "It was a good strategy, but there needed to be more accomplished," he said. "There needed to be a more comprehensive immigration reform package installed."
Democrats have exploited GOP divisions, fending off
.After this election serious questions must be asked. No matter how mad it makes Lou Dobbs

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Conservatives Take A Deep Breath the Polls Are OK

Some needless anxiety going on in Conservative land. The always intelligent and reliable JAY COST has a article that will calm you down . Very informative so you might want to print it out.

A word on polls conservatives. They are ok-promise. They are ALL not a plot. There are many variables to polls and if used and analyzed correctly they are our friend. Lets not be afraid of them but use them to aid us in our victory. Perhaps I shall do a later post where I shall expalin The Pondering American's Poll Truths. But right now I see hope in many polls not unavoidable disaster.

I must say the whole subject of polling has created some fussy people today. I had a run in on a conservative forum with a guy that I forgot I had a spat last week. The guy is convinced I am evil because I was not sold on the whole Webb Book Scandel as a vote getting tactic in Virginia. He was talking about this Poll conspiracy. He mentioned the 2004 exit polls. I just mentioned for clarity that there was no conspiracy and that the company running the poll was sending out warnings all day that they were troubled at their results. His response:

Please, nationwide exit polling showed the same damn trend on election night. That was not by accident. It was intentional. I have done this dance with you before about this election. YOU SURE LIKE TO TRY AND HELP DISCOURAGE REPUBLICAN VOTERS. I KNOW WHERE YOU STAND AND IT IS NOT YOUR BEST INTERSET FOR REPUBLICANS TO WIN. GOOD TRY WOLF IN SHEEP'S CLOTHING.All - this freeper defended the words of Jim Webb about a father picking up his 4 year old son and puttting his penis in his mouth!!!!


Good Grief dude go get a drink or get on medication. Even with a few days till the elections some folks are concerned about finding rinos and outing secret liberals. I shall be back later. I have to run down to the Wal-Mart and scare old people in to voting Dem by telling them that Republicans want to take away their SS check(Sarc)



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Wednesday, November 01, 2006

By the Way Please Visit My Blogroll

I think I have one of the best really. I am currently on a computer that has a over active filter and is denying me access to blogrolling. Which means I can't see my link list. Tonight during the Boise St/Fresno game I shall return home and hopefully do a blogroll roundup.

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Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu Out Campaigning For The Democrats

Most Louisiana residents are just bystanders in all this election fun the nation is having. The hottest races in the state are races for mayor in ALexandria and Shreveport, a fun Sheriffs race in St Landry Parish, and an interesting Congressional race in New Orleans where William "Cold Cash" Jefferson is running. There is also a contested congressional race deep in cajun country but anyone besides the most partisan will say that is a safe Dem seat.

However, just because there is a lack of excitement in Louisiana doesn't mean our congressional delegation is just sitting around. I noted with interest this Slate article talking about Sen Mary Landrieu up in Tennessee campaigning for Harold Ford. The writer states: The other day I wrote that it's ridiculous to say that Tennessee Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr. has "Hollywood values." But today, I'm at a "Women for Ford" event moderated by longtime Tennessee resident and political activist Ashley Judd. Also on the stage: Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, a conservative, religious Southern Democrat whom Ford is clearly trying to emulate politically.

I must say that I never have thought of Landrieu as a "religious" candidate. I am not slamming Mary's personal faith here. It just never has seem to be a big theme of her campaign. Does going to Church make one a "religious Democrat"? Further looking at the demographics of Mary's vote last time. I wonder if she needs to emulate Ford and not the other way around. Besides that I am sure Senator Landrieu doesnt mind being up in Tennessee. The further away she is from that messy Congressional race in her own district the better for her politically. Plus she will need all the chits she can call in when she runs in 08.


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What Does a Possible Democrat House Majority Mean to Immigration

I thought I would revisit an interesting topic today. That is what is the future of immigration politics if the House goes Democrat. This subject is one that no one seems to be talking about on the conservative forums and blogs with much frequency. That is understandable fore several reasons. First, this is not the time for whole Conservative blogsphere to admit defeat in the House. Even with my preliminary prediction below, I still think we need to fight for every seat. Second, I even the hardliners know its not time to bash the President and also depress turnout among the immigration hardliners.

However my blog does not have the readership of the of the National Review's Corner blog so I have no fear that I shall cause any problems.

Mickey Kaus at Slate is one of my favorite Democrats. He often is the only Democrat that tells his fellow travellers honest truths. Kaus also is the liberal version of Tom Tancredo on immigration. Kaus has been thinking of this issue quite a bit. He recently posted:
I've been trying to figure out if a Democrat-led House would actually pass some version of the Bush-McCain semi-amnesty immigration bill. Everyone I talk to in Washington pooh-poohs the idea, arguing that Pelosi-led Democrats will never give Bush something he wants. I'd like to agree, but I'm skeptical. The only thing standing in the way of the Bush legislation was the Republican House, and if that's gone ... . Plus, there will be intense pressure from Latino groups for Democrats to take advantage of the rare welfare-reform-like opening in which a President is willing to defy his own party's Congressional caucus. Not to mention all those new citizens for Dems to register. ... V-DARE immigration-restrictionist Steve Sailer is skeptical too, though he notes the possibility of a split among the Dems, with a significant Lou-Dobbsy "preserve unskilled wages" faction finally emerging. But Sailer leaves out the possibility of a McCain presidency--which would presumably mean at least four more years of White House pressure for "comprehensive" reform. ... P.S.: Anyone who can help me think through this somewhat crucial question, please e-mail. ... 9:55 P.M.

If you are new to this blog let me say upfront that I am a supporter of the Bush view of a comprehensive approach to immigration. I agree with Influence Peddler blog that this is a no brainer. Peddler states:A Democratic House of Representatives is going to have a tough row to hoe. With a Republican Senate (presumably) and White House, they will have no trouble finding issues on which to draw distinctions with the GOP (expanded access to health care, minimum wage increases, ramped-down commitment in Iraq, and deficit reduction). But they will also have to protect themselves against the charge that they stand for nothing but obstruction, and there are few issues where they agree with the Senate and the White House.Wait a minute. Did I say 'few issues?' I meant 'no issues' - apart from immigration.Further, there is the latino constituency to think about. After the signing of the Secure Fence Act, and after whatever happens on election day, do you think the President will sit back and forget about his efforts to woo latino voters to the GOP? What could be a better pitch than to say 'The Senate has passed earned legalization; I will sign earned legalization, but Nancy Pelosi opposes earned legalization.' Knowing that he doesn't need to appease the GOP base anymore, Bush can sing that song far and wide. And guess what? If Nancy Pelosi stubbornly refuses to cooperate, it will rankle the GOP base even less.And lastly, Pelosi will need to demonstrate that they can deliver for business on something. If the Democrats win the House, and their agenda with regard to business includes tax increases, increased regulation, a grinding halt to trade expansion, beating up on China, and investigating federal contracts, how much more likely will business be to redouble the effort to make Pelosi a one-term Speaker? There will be relatively few issues where House Democrats could do something to buy off the animosity of Big Business. Immigration will be a big one.

Like I have said since June, the Tancredo hardliners have played bad politics with this issue from the start. There were clear indications from polling data and just plain history that the Dems could retake the house. That is one reason why the refusal of many to compromise with the President on any aspect of his plan has been baffling to me. Anyone that has run for Class President could see that this was weak hand policy wise when looking down the road at the eelctions that are now upon us. There were promises that this issue would bring us election dividends. My question is where are they at? Former Minuteman and Immigration hardliner Randy Graf in Arizona is tanking in his race in Arizona. Is this issue saving our GOP Senator in Pennsylvania? I think not. For all the talk of how this was going to be the issue of the ages it seems way down the list of topics we are hearing about.

If the Democrats win the House then immigration reform is coming back in a big way. President Bush will of course be lameducked. However this issue is important to him. One gets a sense that besides his failed efforts to get people to reform the Social Security program that this is his biggest domestic vision. Perhaps more than his education policy accomplishments. I also agree that the Dems will deal with the President on this issue. Its a win/win for both the democrats and the President. However sad to say this will be the only silver lining for the Bush administration if the House Democrats takes the house.



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Preliminary Predictions For Election Day

I shall go into a more detailed analysis later this week.

By the grace of God we keep the Senate. I think Coker's lead in Tenn is real and he should pull that race out. Virginia is though is troublesome. At some point one cannot ignore the poll after poll showing Webb ahead. Will the GOP GOTV operation save Allen? I hope it will. My gut instinct is that AlLen will pull this out but it will be a nailbiter. The other race that I am hopeful about is Burns in Montana. I had written this race off months ago. However, there is room for hope in this race also. I think the GOP suprise of the night will be in Maryland.

THe HOuse on the other hand is a different story. After looking at the top 30 races I believe we lose the House by5 to 7 seats. Can the GOP GOTV save the house? Sure it can. However right now I see the function of the gotv of preventing a 20 to 25 seat takeover by the Dems. More analysis later.

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Monday, October 30, 2006

Republicans still making mistakes on the Black Vote( A look at at a Miss House Race)

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MAYOR YVONNE BROWN-GOP HOPEFUL FOR CONGRESS FROM MISSISSIPPI


Let me say I am pleased the GOP is devoting resources to the Steele in Maryland. He ,if elected, will be only the second black US Republican Senator since the the turn of the century. Hopefully if elected the mistakes in this article will not be repeated.

This article focuses on a House race in that is taking place in the Mississippi Delta. The incumbent is the insufferable democrat Benny Thompson. Benny Thompson by the way will become head of the House Homeland Security Committee if the Dems take the House. That possibilty should scare any American. Why did Benny Thompson leave the agriculture committee to take a spot on the Homeland Security committee? Good Question. Especially since his district is largely farming. Furthermore, besides an nuclear power plant in Port Gibson and two bridges on the Mississippi River, I can't quite imagine what terrorist would even want to hit in the Mississippi Delta. The Casinos in Greenville Mississippi?In other words , I have a feeling its low on the priority list of Bin Laden.

So why did he make a move that is so counterproductive to his district? The answer is Representative Benny Thompson is looking out for Benny Thompson as always. The last time I saw Benny was at a Vicksburg Casino. He was strolling around in his jogging suit and even had bodyguards it appeared. Good Grief. Well, maybe his new bodyguards will be better since I suspect we shall be paying for it in the future.

If Republicans wish to to maintain long term viability they must be go after people that are currently minorities. Republicans buy too much into the Gospel that African Americans will not vote Republican. That is false. I do not analyze political races with Republican rose colored glasses ,so I am not saying that Republicans can capture the 51 percent of this demographic. But Republicans need to recognize trends that show the African American community is becoming more independent from the Democrat party machine. When individual Republicans make a effort to get go after the African American vote it shows dividends. I have seen that recently in my home state of Louisiana. In the Louisiana Secretary of States race, Republican Jay Dardenne received very good numbers in black areas especially in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Why? Well because he asked for their vote . This was a factor in the Democrat dropping out of the race in the runoff.

Why should Republicans devote money, time, and resources to this obscure race in the Mississippi delta?.

Well first it is the right thing to do. As a resident of the deep south, I have observed the problems of black community first hand. In fact unlike many of our northern and western fellow countrymen, blacks and whites are truly integrated in the schools and in many facets of everyday life here in Dixie. Why do the problems in the black community seem to continue year after year? May I suggest that the lack of a viable two party system in that community is a huge part of the problem. There is a lot of bashing of the two party system nowadays. However the current system does do a important function. That is it offers debate on policy. I hate to say that is often absent in the black community at a substantial level. That is not to say that all black politicians believe in the same things. However the lack of true party partisans hinders true policy debate that can create change beyond the halls of Government. In an area that is as poor as the the Mississippi Delta, that has real life consequences.

The second reason is we can win it. In 2002 and 2004 a black Republican by name of Clinton LeSueur ran against Thompson. He was to say the least very underfunded. He could be seen around the district putting up his on yard signs. The result? He got around 44 percent of the vote. Thompson to say the least was shocked. In the rematch in 2004, Thompson unleashed the full power of his machine against LeSueur who again not well funded by the RNC. The result was that LeSueur received a very respectable 41 percent of the vote. Local Mississippi Republicans will tell you that if Le Sueur would have had help from the National party to combat that machine, the results would have been different. I agree with that assessment.

The Republicans have a fine Candiate in Yvonne Brown. She would have been a lot more viable at this point if the GOP had highlighted this race. This should have been obvious when Thompson had a serious Democrat challenger this year in his own primary. How many more wasted opportunities like this will occur till black Republican hopefuls might just give up? But it is still a week till election day. For this week ,I can dream of an conservative African American female Republican representing a majority black district in the deep South. A dream that would signal a lot of hope for people of all races in the deep south. The problem is it didn't just have to be a dream.

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