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Tuesday, September 19, 2006

The Gun Issue and the 08 Republican Primary Race

I must say that all these political talking heads have seemed to ignore the "NRA" issues and the related past records of the Republican 08 field. The Gun issue has largely gone unnoticed because it has not been a subject of vast debate recently. The reason is of course a very Conservative Republican controlled Congress and a pro 2nd Amendment President has been in power since 2000. However looking at the field I think that issue is going to be a issue that might decide a lot of close primaries. The NRA and assorted groups will do everything in their power to make sure that a Republican Nominee is not a heretic on that issue.

The striking thing about the 08 field that is developing is how much more "moderate" it is than in past races. For instance the real early strength of Governor Pataki and Governor Romney is quite striking. You put Guilliani in the mix(who I am really convinced will not run) and the field that is viable is much less conservative in the past.

I see the following as the real Contenders in the race-
Governor Romney
Gov Pataki
Senator McCain
Gov Mike Huckabee
Sen Bill Frist( I am putting him up here but I think he has no shot and will be out by New Hampshire)

Possibles
Newt Gingrich(I have doubts if he will actually run)
Gilluani(Same doubts)
Sam BrownBack(who I really suspect will run)
Senator Allen(depends on if he survives in 06 which I predict he will but right now is damaged goods)

Lets for example take a look at one hopeful

Governor Romney-
Governor Romney seems to be remaking himself into a hard line Conservative more and more each day. Now the question of course is if he is a true believer and past stands(see abortion) were just because he had to take those stands for survival in the very liberal state of Massachusetts. The media rants on and on about if his Mormon religion is going to be a problem with Southern voters or the Christian right. They pretty much assume it will be by the way. I take the quite opposite view. However his position on GUNS is going to be a big issue once those famous orange NRA postcards start hitting mailboxes. In my view the average Republican in my blessed State for instance won'tt give a big darn if he is Mormon but they sure as hell will care on about his stance on Guns.
One gets a sense that Governor Romney to win in Massachusetts had to be a tad "liberal" on the gun issue than lets say a Governor Huckabee from Arkansas. However it is real interesting too see how he dealing with this. This post at Evanglicals for Mitt hits this issue dead on. Will that work?

Again it is something to consider when "picking your guy or gal" for 08. I don't mean to pick on Romney here. I believe that Giullani and Pataki will have much the same if not worse problems with this issue among this segment of Republican Primary voters in many areas of the country.

I suppose this is one reason why I think someone like Governor Huckabee or a Sen Brownback could really emerge from the Pack in this race. Needless to say Senator Allen ,if he is even around , will likewise be in a good position to get these votes.

One other Republican that will have problems is Senator McCain. I believe his problems will not be his votes on Gun issue but his stance and to the horror of the NRA his victory on campaign finance reform. I suspect that is viewed as a much bigger sin by the NRA and related groups than the political choices that some of the northern gop hopefuls had to make in order to survive. In fact that is the major complaint I hear from NRA members about McCain. They have not forgotten and if they get fuzzy on it I suspect the NRA will remind them.

It is a big issue and if you are supporting anyone outside the Gingrich/Brownback/Huckabee/Allen/Frist Camp then you better start figuring out how to deal with it. This could be the issue that breaks your guy. Also looking beyond the primaries ,these Second Amendment voters have to get to the polls in Novmember for us to win. Does your hopeful do that? Questions to ask.




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1 Comments:

Blogger Blue State Republican said...

Huckabee just got a major endorsement from a key gun rights activist in S. Carolina!

See: http://mikehuckabeepresident2008.blogspot.com/2006/09/huckabee-gets-gun-rights-endorsement.html

BSR

12:41 PM  

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